China's crude oil imports will likely rise only 1% this year, and the country's reliance on oil imports is projected to remain at around 70% between 2026 and 2030, according to an outlook released by state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

The implications of China hitting peak oil are enormous. If Chinese demand is reaching a plateau that would fulfil projections by the IEA of global oil demand peaking before 2030. The forecast sustains hope for the world to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Imports of Russian crude oil to China reached a record high in 2024, rising by 1% compared to 2023, Reuters reported on Jan. 20. The Russian fossil fuel industry is the primary economic driver of Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine.

China's surplus crude oil eased slightly in December, but the excess surged in 2024 to more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as refiners gobbled up cheaper Russian cargoes.